Economic Forecast

Working with you to build our economy

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

We continue our long-standing partnership with the Journal of Business to bring you the 27^th Annual Economic Forecast with a theme highlighting “National Forces, Local Reality” from a panel offering local, regional, and national insights.

Markets without a map: When AI euphoria meets a data blackout

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) pioneered by economist Eugene F. Fama, financial markets fully reflect all available information. In practice, that assumption is being tested today.

The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic data such as GDP, inflation, employment, and consumer spending, forcing investors and policymakers to make decisions with blurred economic data. Meanwhile, AI-related equities are soaring, fueling debate over whether markets are efficiently pricing innovation or inadvertently creating an asset bubble.

Is it time to brush aside uncertainty?

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

I desperately wanted to use my favorite economic phrase this year for this space, which is "cautiously optimistic." But the majority of the economists I asked to contribute to this supplement have convinced me of my potential naiveté.

Uncertainty certainly has been the watchword this year, as shock-and-awe style actions at the federal level, coupled with stubborn inflation and interest-rate levels and continued unrest elsewhere in the world, left businesses here only guessing about what is next. As a result, it has felt a bit like we are all on hold.

Foundation remains solid, but expect growth to slow in coming year

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

As we look ahead for the next 12 months, the US economy faces a transition period marked by moderating growth, elevated policy uncertainty, continued stubborn inflation levels, and the delayed effects of earlier policy changes. While the foundation remains solid, many economists and forecasters project growth slowing toward a below-trend pace.

Uncertainty remains the watchword, and likely will continue in 2026

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

Of disruption, disinterment, and relearning

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

Economic uncertainty and a tightening labor market make planning difficult

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

Economic and labor market data are telling multiple stories right now:
The labor force is tightening and it’s becoming more difficult to find a job, but the unemployment rate is remaining low. Economic uncertainty is on the rise, but the stock market continues to hit new highs. Prices continue to increase, but consumer spending is up as well.

A slowing labor market reflects a slowing economy

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

The labor market outlook for 2026 for the state of Washington looks very challenging, if we are to believe the recent estimates from the Washington State Economic & Research Forecast Council (Council).
While payroll employment statewide in 2024 grew by 1%, the Council looks at this year delivering a mere 0.3% annual growth. And 2026 is viewed even more conservatively. The Council expects a bump in state payroll employment of only 0.2%! In colloquial terms, that’s called treading water.

More INW startups, investing expected in 2025

dylanh@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

Funding for emerging companies is in a lull, but overall, the Inland Northwest’s startup ecosystem is growing, and that growth is expected to continue in 2025.

Health care leaders optimistic despite struggles

dylanh@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

Despite continued operating losses at Providence and MultiCare in the Inland Northwest, leaders of the two health care systems are expressing optimism going into 2025.

Farmers expect relief in 2025 from past years' headwinds

karinae@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

Looking to 2025, growers in Washington hope to find some relief from high labor costs and interest rates.

More conventions, sporting events to bolster INW tourism

dylanh@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

The Inland Northwest tourism sector is expected to see steady growth in 2025, destination marketing leaders for Spokane County and North Idaho say.

Mining industry observers are optimistic about coming year

mikem@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

The mining industry in the Inland Northwest and beyond has an optimistic outlook for the coming year.

Some retailers are hopeful for revenue growth

ericab@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

Retail sales in Spokane had a sluggish start through the first half of the year ahead of what's expected to be flat or slightly higher sales through the last two quarters of 2024.

Affordability issues to dampen real estate activity

ericab@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

Real estate affordability has been a top concern in Spokane and Kootenai counties this year for both the commercial and residential markets, and high costs are expected to persist in the new year.

Construction activity to stabilize at slower rate in 2025

ericab@spokanejournal.com — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 03:00:00 -0500

A burst of construction activity in the beginning of the year has given way to a development slowdown that's projected to stabilize at a slower rate in 2025.

Of disinflation, experiments and surprises

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 12:30:23 -0500

The war in Ukraine has shown the world that cheap drones and cameras make surprise moves of large formations almost impossible. The same cannot be said about the economic world.
Last year the expectation was that in 2023 a recession was likely in the wake of the Fed’s efforts to curtail the post 2020 inflation. Yet here we are in late 2023, no recession yet and growth far above early year expectations.

Question for ’24: Why are the indicators so unclear?

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0500

I have produced annual economic reviews and forecasts for the Inland Northwest for 42 years, and in those four-plus decades I have never been less certain about where the data I follow is pointing.
Last year in this space I questioned, “Why, when so many traditional economic indicators looked so positive, are we were not feeling better about the state of our local/regional economy?”

Wage growth, youth spending drive core inflation

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank closely tracks overall inflation, especially core inflation. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the inflation measure economists prefer to track as it excludes the volatility of energy and food prices. Excluding spikes in energy and food prices allows economists to disaggregate inflation and measure changes in the price of “core” or basic goods and services.

Expect slower spending, more work on Fed target

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The economic data shows evidence of an economy in transition. The raging debate is whether the economy is transitioning to a slower growth rate (i.e., a “soft landing”) or whether it is transitioning to a recession (i.e., a “hard landing”).

Chance of recession becomes mild, but risks remain

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0500

The good news as we exit 2023 is the U.S. avoided a widely expected recession this year. The bad news is the chance of a mild recession in 2024 still remains a risk.

Creating our future economy today

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0500

We continue our long-standing partnership with the Journal of Business to bring you the 26^th Annual Economic Forecast with a theme highlighting “What Recession?” from a panel offering local, regional, and national insights.

Think calm resilience in 2024

publisher@spokanejournal.com — Wed, 08 Nov 2023 00:00:00 -0500

I think economist Steve Scranton summed it up best this year: “If times are good for you, keep doing what you are doing, but remain alert and prepared.”
My reading of a collection of articles for this supplement, written by local economists, cemented what most of us are already thinking, that the questions we had going into 2023 remain unanswered for 2024. But here’s the punchline: Fears of a full recession seem to have minimized, meaning a soft landing in 2024 is still very possible.