Spokane Journal of Business

Commercial delinquency rates decline

January numbers were lowest since early 2012; other positives emerge

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The delinquency rate for U.S. commercial real estate loans included in commercial mortgage-backed securities fell 14 basis points in January to 9.57 percent, says a report issued late last month by Washington, D.C.-based finance research company Trepp LLC.

That's the lowest level sinceFebruary 2012,when the rate was at 9.38 percent, and the improvement marks a resumption of a downward trend in the rate that began inAugust 2012, Trepp researchers say.

Loan resolutions experienced a slight bump in January, with more than$1.2 billionin loans resolved with losses. The removal of these loans from the delinquent category helped drive the delinquency rate down 22 basis points.

There was about$2.8 billionof newly delinquent loans in January, putting 50 basis points of upward pressure on the rate. That total was less, though, than the$3.2 billionof newly delinquent loans reported inDecember 2012.

"If the CMBS market was cycling, people would think that someone had been dumping performance-enhancing drugs in the water cooler," says Manus Clancy, senior managing director of Trepp.

The Trepp report says refinancing activity is expected to increase in 2013 and will offset some of the downward pressure on the overall delinquency rate by removing some performing loans from the equation.

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