Some Spokane-area employment observers say they're optimistic that the job market here is turning around, but it's going to be a long road to an overall recovery, as construction employment here still lags, and the government sector is losing jobs.

Christina Gross, a recruiter at the Manpower Inc. employment agency here, says many Spokane-area businesses are optimistic about growth this year and anticipate contracting temporary workers through Manpower who eventually will become permanent employees.

"We've received orders from clients we haven't seen for a while," Gross says, although she declines to identify specific clients. "A year and a half ago, it was so dismal, it was discouraging. Now, it's very encouraging."

Doug Tweedy, Spokane-based regional economist for the Washington state Employment Security Department, says he's seeing slight gains in Spokane-area employment.

"We're positive we've hit bottom and we're starting up," he says of the overall Spokane-area employment picture. "It's been a jobless recovery up to this point, but I think the labor market will start feeling an increase."

One of the first signs of a recovering economy is replacement hiring for people who've been retiring or leaving, he says.

"Usually replacement demand—or churn—will increase first," Tweedy says. "Then net-gain jobs will follow."

Professional and business services, a broad category that includes scientific, technical, engineering, legal, accounting, and research-and-development concerns, has added 400 jobs since 2009 and will continue to add jobs this year, Tweedy says.

"We usually see increases in that category first after a downturn," he says.

Still, Tweedy says, it will take a number of years for the job market to return to peak employment.

"There's not going to be a big bounce that we sometimes have after a recession," he says. "Because of the length of the downturn and correction, the number of jobs created will be slow to recover."

The construction sector picked up 100 jobs in February, compared with January, the first uptick since last summer, Tweedy says. He attributes that increase, however, to seasonal construction project starts.

"It's not due to creating new jobs," he says. "We're still down."

He says Spokane County lost 3,500 construction jobs during the recession.

Wayne Brokaw,executive director of Inland Northwest Associated General Contractors, also says it's too soon to declare that the construction industry is turning around.

Brokaw, like Tweedy, is wary that construction gains might not be long lasting.

"The biggest (construction) job gains are going to be seasonal projects carried over from last year," he says. "Some projects that were funded last year or the year before are due to start this year."

The extent to which publicly funded projects might help out the construction industry also is uncertain, Brokaw says.

"We don't know yet what capital and transportation projects will be approved and funded by the state Legislature or by Congress," he says.

One area of employment that's losing ground here is the government and education sector, which has lost 200 jobs since 2009, Tweedy says.

"That trend is starting to accelerate this year," he says. "With budget issues at all levels of government, I don't expect that to turn around in 2011."

Employment in Spokane County peaked in the fourth quarter of 2008, when the county had a three-month average of 228,000 jobs. In the first quarter of this year, the county had an average of 213,000 jobs, Tweedy says.

"We still have a ways to make up," he says.

The Spokane County unemployment rate in February was 10.6 percent, down from 11.7 percent a year earlier.

Tweedy says he expects the unemployment rate to return to single digits this spring.

"The first quarter of every year has the highest unemployment rate," he says. "I expect it to drop to between 8.5 percent and 9 percent throughout most of 2011."

Industry sectors that are showing the most strength in job growth include manufacturing and leisure and hospitality, which are gaining jobs at a higher-than-seasonal rate, Tweedy says.

The manufacturing sector gained 200 jobs in February.

Lee Tate, president of Tate Technology Inc., of Spokane, which manufactures electronic circuit boards, says that company added 14 employees last year and is on the verge of needing more workers.

"We've seen our order volume stay up through the first quarter and into the second quarter," he says. "We're not seeing any significant signs that our main customers are going to have a downturn."

The company employs 42 people, some of whom are working overtime hours to keep up with orders, Tate says.

"We're handling it now, but it wouldn't take much of a push to need more people," he says.

Tate Technology already has 25 percent of the orders it can handle for the third quarter, he says.

"Typically, we only have 10 percent of our third-quarter orders at this time," he says.

Robin Toth, director of business and development for Greater Spokane Incorporated, says aerospace and composite manufacturers are in hiring modes. "Those jobs are good for this area," she says.

It's not just large manufacturing companies like Triumph Composite Systems Inc. and Kaiser Aluminum Corp. that are hiring here, Toth says.

"Smaller companies that start with a handful of people also are growing," she says. "That's how we stay diversified."