More than 80 percent of lenders who responded to a recent survey believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average will yield gains this year. Survey respondents also predict that constrained liquidity in the capital markets and sluggish housing market are the factors that will have the strongest potential to affect the economy over the next six months.

Those were among findings gleaned from a "Lending Climate in America" survey conducted last quarter by Philadelphia, Pa.-based Phoenix Management Services.

When asked "What is your expectation for the performance of the DJIA in 2010 after hitting 2009 highs in December 2009 above the 10,500 level?" 40 percent of respondents said they expect the DJIA to increase between 5 percent and 10 percent.

Nearly 35 percent said they believe the DJIA will show modest signs of improvement and increase between 1 percent and 5 percent this year from the 2009 ending tally. Nine percent were bullish, suggesting that the DJIA will yield gains greater than 10 percent, while 7 percent said they believe the DJIA still has room to retreat and will fall between 5 percent and 10 percent this year. Five percent of the lenders surveyed said they anticipate the DJIA to fall more than 10 percent, and the remaining 5 percent said they believe it will fall modestly by 1 percent to 5 percent.

"While it is not surprising that housing and constrained liquidity were seen as having the biggest impact on the economy, I was a bit surprised that the overwhelming majority thought that the Dow would continue its growth this year," says Phoenix Managing Director Michael Jacoby.

Seventy-one percent of respondents, when asked to identify the economic factor with the greatest potential to affect the market in coming months, pointed to constrained liquidity in the capital markets, while a sizable percentage also chose the continued sluggish housing market, Jacoby says.

More than half of the respondents said they have mixed reactions towards President Obama's economic policy during the president's first year in office. Fifty-two percent said they believe the U.S. economy showed some signs of improvement during that period, but that significant issues remain. Forty percent said they considered President Obama's economic initiatives to be unsuccessful as the U.S. economy is no better with the fiscal deficit increasing.

Phoenix Management provides turnaround, crisis, and interim management services to middle-market companies in transition.