Those whove tracked Spokanes economy for any time know the term cautiously optimistic all too well.


For 2004, you can toss the word cautiously from that phrase. Based on interviews with dozens of experts and observers in the industry sectors that drive the Inland Northwests economy, the coming year should bring healthy growth to the region.


Spokane County is expected to add anywhere from 2,000 to 3,000 jobs in 2004, far better than the estimated 1,400 jobs created this year through Sept. 30, and the 800 lost in 2002.


Commercial leasing activity, one barometer of economic health, has been picking up lately and is expected to be strong next year, says Mark Pinch, president of Tomlinson Black Commercial Inc. here. Home sales likely will continue to be hot for at least the first half of 2004, and the markets for retail, office, and industrial space are predicted to improve.


Commercial construction should rebound in 2004, but homebuilders project a decline in activity. A spate of big hospital projects are winding down, but meaty public-works projects, including the convention center expansion, are ramping up.


The battered high-tech industry is looking for modest improvements in 2004. For some in that industry, growth should be strong.


Big concerns, however, still weigh heavily on the health-care sector, one of Spokanes most important employers, say hospital officials. Rising costs and inadequate reimbursements are among those concerns, though the recent Medicare bill did provide some reimbursement respite, and patient volumes are climbing.


Optimism is high in Kootenai County, where some anticipated commercial projects and an improved U.S. economy are expected to boost employment, says Kathryn Tacke, a regional economist with the Idaho Department of Labor. The natural-resource industries that once dominated the county are improving again, and tourism is thriving.


Banks and other financial institutions here expect another year of strong growth in 2004, despite a cooling home-loan market, say bank CEOs. Sterling Financial Corp. is hiring aggressively at its Spokane headquarters to accommodate its pending acquisition of an Oregon bank. Retailers, meanwhile, predict a healthy 2004. Sales-tax receipts grew at a good clip this year, and based on economic news, should climb again next year.


As for agriculture, Things are probably a little stronger than they have been for the past few years, says Jay Penick, CEO of ag lender Northwest Farm Credit Services. Wheat exports should climb, as should grain prices. Pea and lentil growers also expect good prices and hope for better yields from newly developed seeds.


The higher price for gold has shed a golden glow on the mining industry, which is aggressively pursuing new and expanded operations and is taking advantage of the lower production costs it fought hard to achieve when prices were down, says Laura Skaer, executive director of the Northwest Mining Association. Silver Valley mining employment is growing again, mining companies say.


Wood-products makers, who a year ago described their industry as doomed, have profited this year from surging lumber and plywood prices and say they believe 2004 holds promise.


More aggressive marketing and a trio of sporting events slated for next June together should boost tourism here in 2004. Convention business also should increase, based on early bookings.