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Home » Finance execs increasingly are pessimistic, uncertain

Finance execs increasingly are pessimistic, uncertain

Poll results show lingering concern about double-dip recession, jobless recovery

July 29, 2010

Continued concerns about the possibility of a "double-dip" recession and a slow jobs recovery, together with increasing economic uncertainty, have a growing number of finance professionals reporting pessimism about the economic picture and outlook for their companies.

Those were among the findings of a poll of financial executives conducted in June by Adaptive Planning, of Mountain View, Calif., and the Business Performance Innovation Network, an organization made up of senior-level executives.

Forty-six percent of poll respondents predicted a "W-shaped" recovery, similar to the 51 percent in the prior quarter's survey who said they expect a "double-dip" recession. Four out of five finance executives in the latest poll said they don't believe that a meaningful and sustained recovery in jobs growth will occur until 2011 or beyond, with 41 percent believing it will be in the second half of 2011 or beyond.

The majority of those surveyed said they view current economic conditions as the same (38 percent) or better (35 percent) than they were six months ago. However, a growing number of finance professionals have become more pessimistic about the future, with 21 percent expecting the economy to be in worse condition in six months—more than double the 10 percent who felt that way in the prior quarter, and the highest "negative" reading since March 2009.

At the same time, finance professionals also are reporting less optimism for the future performance of their companies. While 51 percent of respondents said they expect their company's revenue to grow over the next six months, 24 percent said they expect revenues to fall—a significant deterioration from the prior quarter's 14 percent. As for hiring, 29 percent of survey participants said they expect their company to have fewer employees in six months, which also is worse than the prior quarter's 22 percent.

The economic outlook is becoming increasingly murky as well, with a full 60 percent of companies reporting high or very high levels of uncertainty. That result is up from 53 percent in the first quarter and near the highest level of uncertainty previously reported, which was 63 percent in March 2009. That uncertainty is continuing to drive more frequent re-forecasting and scenario planning, with 56 percent of respondents expecting to increase the frequency of their re-planning and what-if analysis next quarter.

The survey also found that improving planning, reporting, and analysis was the top challenge for finance organizations, well ahead of staff issues, revenue concerns, access to capital and credit, expense management, and many other issues.

"In addition to the top concerns from past surveys—demand for products, U.S. financial market stability, and health-care reform—finance professionals are now also worried about Euro-zone instability," says William A. Soward, CEO of Adaptive Planning.

"Against this backdrop, it's not surprising that the number one pain for finance organizations is improving their budgeting, forecasting, and reporting processes," Soward says. "Traditional approaches to financial management are simply no longer sufficient given the demands that the current economic environment places on executives and management teams."

The online poll surveyed financial professionals from companies in more than 20 industries and ranging in annual revenues from less than $10 million to more than $1 billion. This is the sixth quarterly poll examining perspectives on key economic conditions, individual company performance, and the role of planning and forecasting in the current economic downturn, Adaptive Planning says.

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