Predictions from nearly every economic sector here point to a vibrant year ahead


Pull out your sunglasses, because the economy here looks to be brightening.


Based on interviews with dozens of experts and observers in the industry sectors that drive the Inland Northwest economy, the coming year holds great promise for growthperhaps vibrant growth.


Commercial contractors expect to be even busier in 2005 than they were this year, which was a banner year, though the fast-paced home-building clip of this year could slow. A slew of school projects and road work will help.


Optimism also is growing in the high-tech sector, which was pummeled earlier this decade, but began to turn around this year. Purcell Systems Inc. and Isothermal Systems Research Inc. are likely stars.


Spokane County added an impressive 4,500 jobs this year in November, compared with the year earlier. State officials predict the county will add 3,800 jobs next year, a more optimistic outlook than they provided earlier. Bankers, meanwhile, are bullish about 2005, saying that the economy is improving, demand for loans is strong, and deposits are growing.


The outlook also is bright across the border in Kootenai County, where a record number of manufacturing jobs are expected next year. The real estate market there remains hot and two new big employersBuck Knives Inc. and Sysco Corp.together will add nearly 400 jobs.


The natural-resource industries are unusually healthy.


On the farm, wheat growers expect at least a decent 2005, while optimism is even higher in the Palouses dry pea and lentil region. Mining companies, bolstered by greatly improved metals prices, are aggressively launching projects that will boost production and take advantage of heady margins. Wood-products companies expect 2005 to be nearly as good as this year, which brought record prices, record production, and strong demand.


Meanwhile, relatively low interest rates and greater business expansion should fuel increased real estate activity next year. Home inventories will remain tight.


The sunnier times, however, wont likely dissipate the dark clouds that have formed over the health-care industry, which expects little recovery in 2005 from the financial woes that prompted Spokanes two largest hospital operators to cut staff this year. The tourism industry also is expecting a soft yearat least in Spokanedue partly to a letdown in convention activity while the convention center is being expanded. Tourism in Kootenai County is expected to remain strong.


The retail sector remains a question mark. Sales have improved late this year, and industry observers say that could be a telling sign for 2005. Government officials here expect retail-sales growth of between 2.4 percent and 4 percent.


Paul Read