Crops planned for 2024 have had a dry start this fall, creating a need for winter and spring precipitation to improve conditions, says Casey Chumrau, CEO of Spokane-based Washington Grain Commission. 

"Current conditions are variable for the grain planted in the fall of 2023 for the 2024 harvest," she says. 

According to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service, Washington produced 113.1 million bushels of wheat in 2023, down from 144 million bushels in 2022, and below the five-year average of 138.8 million bushels, she says.

In addition to weather patterns, many of the obstacles that grain producers faced in 2023 are still present, including rising production costs and persistent inflation, she says. High export prices compared to other wheat-producing countries, along with a strong U.S. dollar, have reduced Pacific Northwest wheat exports, says Chumrau.

Josh Siler, Washington state president of AgWest Farm Credit,  says there's some uncertainty in Washington's vast array of agriculture products, with some performing better financially than others, but farmers and ranchers are adaptable and creative in managing through tough times. 

"As a bank, we are used to the up-and-down cycles of agriculture and so are farmers," he says. 

Rising interest rates also have slowed farmers' appetite to borrow money, he says. Farmers who might need new equipment, yet are also predicting smaller crop yields, are waiting for better lending and harvest conditions to take out loans, he says. 

"We had slower lending conditions in 2023," he says. "(There was) still positive growth, but not as much or as fast as in 2022."

According to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report, the value of Washington's 2022 agricultural production totaled $12.8 billion, up 27% from 2021's revised value of $10.1 billion, and breaking the state's previous record of $10.4 billion in 2015.

Apples remain the leading agricultural commodity in the state with a 2022 value of $2.07 billion, up 3% from the previous year, the report states. 

Jennie Strong, international marketing specialist for the Wenatchee-based Washington Apple Commission, says this year's harvest yielded the equivalent of 140.5 million 40-pound boxes of Washington state apples, an increase from last year that saw a 104 million box equivalent. Looking to 2024, there is a possibility for a smaller harvest, she says. 

"Typically, a large crop is followed by a small crop, so we might expect to see a return to normal crop size of about 125-130 million," says Strong.