Spokane-area economists have warned Inland Northwest businesses to prepare for an economic slowdown in the second half of 2019.

That likely is sage advice. Even so, indicators suggest the region is still going strong and reasons to remain bullish on the Inland Northwest business climate are still intact.

Assuming the economy doesn’t take a dramatic turn for the worse next month, the U.S. will enter its longest growth cycle on record, Avista Corp. chief economist Grant Forsyth told the Journal of Business recently. Those records go back to the 1850s. With that in mind, it’s clear the question isn’t one of whether the growth will slow, but when.

International trade wars that don’t appear to have a clear or near-term resolution could have a swift, negative impact on a number of sectors in the Inland Northwest, and financial markets at the national level appear to be preparing for a slowdown.

But slower growth is still growth, not stagnation or contraction. And while past results don’t portend future success, a number of factors suggest the Inland Northwest is in a strong position.

Preliminary figures from the Washington state Employment Security Department put total employment in the Spokane metropolitan statistical area at 254,600. That’s about 5,500 more jobs than a year earlier. With Amazon.com Inc. expected to begin hiring some 1,500 employees this fall when it opens its new fulfillment center on the West Plains, coupled with continued growth across sectors, those numbers should hold strong.

Through the first five months of the year, about 490 bankruptcy filings have been recorded in Spokane County, down 9% from the year-earlier period, following an eight-year decrease in filings. 

As the Journal reported earlier this month, Spokane-area foreclosures have declined by about 12% through the first four months of the year. That drop is following five years of decreases of foreclosures in the county.

That trend couples well with distressed home sales being a virtual nonfactor in the market right now. The Spokane Association of Realtors reports that 2.3% of sales involved distressed properties this year, compared with 3.9% in the first five months of 2019.

Spokane-area home sales are down, but prices are up. That suggests, as nearly any Realtor will tell you, that it’s an issue of supply rather than demand, with fewer houses available for sale.

With hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of school construction projects alone on the books, many architectural and engineering firms are in hiring mode. A harbinger for the construction industry, the activity at the design firms suggests much of the construction industry will remain busy.

We aren’t so foolish as to believe more challenging times don’t lie ahead, but the Spokane economy currently is strong and clicking on most, if not all, cylinders. There are reasons to be optimistic, even if a slowdown is on the horizon.