Record stockpiles of wheat globally likely will mean lower wheat prices for Eastern Washington farmers in 2017, says Glen Squires, CEO of the Washington Grain Commission, based in Spokane.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates world wheat production will approach 745 million metric tons next year, an increase of more than 9 million metric tons—1.26 percent—from 2016.

“It’s why prices have continued to drop,” says Squires. “Right now there’s just unbelievable stocks of wheat around the world.”

The current price of soft white wheat—the predominant variety grown in Eastern Washington—is $4.62 per bushel. This time last year it was $5.44 per bushel, Squires says.

The record stockpiles can be attributed to four consecutive years of record wheat production by Russia, the world’s third largest wheat producer. Russia is expected to set a record harvest for wheat production again in 2017, projected at 72 million metric tons.

“Russia, Australia, and Argentina had these stellar crops. And combined with low global shipping prices, Russia can get their wheat to places like Indonesia for next to nothing,” says Scott Yates, director of communications and producer relations for the grain commission.

This year, Squires says, Washington wheat growers produced 157 million bushels of wheat, up from 111 million bushels in 2015. The 2015 crop experienced drought.

However, the quality of the 2016 crop varied due to widespread temperature fluctuations that led the wheat to sprout before August’s harvest.

Squires says fall weather conditions have been ideal for next year’s crop. 

“All of this rain has gone into the ground. Now we’re hoping for snowfall to give the crop some cover to prevent winter freeze,” he says.

Squires says the grain commission’s focus remains impressing upon international wheat buyers the high quality of the state’s wheat.

Squires says he will travel next month to Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea as part of a marketing tour dedicated to pitching Washington wheat.

With record wheat stockpiles around the world, Squires says it’s critical for the commission to continue finding markets for wheat grown in the state.

“We’re going to be ramping up our export even more into Central America and South America for new markets for our wheat,” Squires says.

Grain commission Vice President Mary Palmer Sullivan tracks barley growth in the state. Next year’s crop won’t be planted until the spring. Growers harvested more than 7 million bushels of barley in 2016, down from 2013’s 14 million bushels, which was a 10-year high.

Palmer Sullivan says barley is no longer “the player” it once was compared to its heyday in 1985 when growers in the state planted 1.2 million acres of barley. Last year, growers planted just 93,000 acres of barley statewide.

However, as small malt houses have emerged in the Spokane area, the demand for more barley to brew beer may provide new barley-growing opportunities for farmers.

“Like they say, no barley, no beer,” Palmer Sullivan says.

As for apples, the state’s largest grown commodity, Todd Fryover, the president of the Washington Apple Commission,  says an estimated 137 million to 140 million apples have been harvested this year, which would make it the second largest harvest in the state’s history.

Final harvest numbers weren’t compiled at press time.

“What we will see in 2017 is the continuing demand from the general public, both domestically and abroad, for the continued development of new varieties and organically grown apples,” says Fryover, who is based in Wenatchee.

A third of Washington apples go abroad, with the largest exports going to Mexico and Canada, Fryover says.