As has been the case for a couple of years now, retailers here are again predicting sales growth for 2017.

However, some of industry representatives and observers interviewed are skeptical as to how long this period of gains will continue.

Grant Forsyth, chief economist for Spokane-based Avista Corp., says retail sales have been growing robustly this year, despite weak income growth.  

“Sales are much stronger than what we’d normally have predicted, with a 7 percent taxable sales growth this year for Spokane County,” he says. “Normally that growth would be accompanied by 7 or 8 percent growth in income, twice our current income growth of 4 percent.”

Forsyth says some of that sales growth is due to vehicle sales having grown this year, but the larger reason is low interest rates. 

He says while the current low rate environment has been exceptional, acting as a stimulus in the face of low income growth, it likely won’t continue for long.

 “There’s a high probability the Fed will raise rates this month,” he said in an interview before this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. “With less interest rate stimulus, sales will slow somewhat this coming year.”

Looking ahead, Forsyth says factors that might soon impact retail sales include slowly increasing wages and growing online transactions.

Jason Moran, sales manager for Gus Johnson Ford, at 8300 E. Sprague in Spokane Valley, says vehicle sales were up this year, although not by much. 

“Low interest rates do play a big part in it, and as long as the credit unions keep rates at 3 percent or lower, most people seem happy,” he says. 

Moran says the election seemed to dampen buyer confidence, although he expects it will bounce back soon. 

“With the election behind us, and a bunch of newer product coming out, we’ll start to see more sales again in 2017,” he says.

Bryn West, general manager of River Park Square, says sales there are up this year by 3 percent over last year.  She attributes some of that increase to better weather and some to a post-election rise in purchasing confidence.

Last year, the mall completed remodeling updates to AMC Theater, and the Twigs restaurant, and West says those changes have been beneficial. 

In October, Urban Outfitters opened a store within the River Park Square outlet at the corner of Main Avenue and Wall Street, and Free People has plans to open a store near there at 809 W. Main this March. 

 “This year we’re focusing on continuing construction on the Macy’s building, hopefully turning over the first two floors of retail space to various merchants in 2017,” West says.

She refers to the nearby former Macy’s store building at the northeast corner of Main Avenue and Wall Street, which was purchased in June by Centennial Properties Inc., the Spokane-based property developer that is part owner of the River Park Square. Macy’s closed that store and vacated the 10-story building last March. 

Centennial Properties has said it intends to develop the building’s first and second floors for use as retail spaces, which should be ready for occupancy by the end of next year.  

For 2016, Spokane County adopted a budget that factored in $23.5 million in local retail sales tax revenue, which actually has increased by nearly 7 percent to what’s expected to be about $25 million by the end of the year. In 2017, the county estimates local retail sales tax revenue will increase by nearly 4 percent, to about $26 million.