Five months into 2024, we have a sense for what this year looks like from a fiscal and economic standpoint in our region. Barring a Black Swan event, there's plenty of evidence that the economy here, by and large, will continue to expand. 

At this juncture, our call to action is this: Believe what you see. 

It goes without saying that nobody knows your business like you do, and we encourage business owners and managers to make their staffing and investment decisions on those factors, rather than the white noise that bombards us on a daily basis. 

In a recent interview for the Journal's Elevating the Conversation podcast, Avista Corp. chief economist Grant Forsyth talks about a jobs market that has remained surprisingly strong, exceeding expectations in terms of growth. His analysis of the combined Spokane County-Kootenai County jobs market shows a 3% increase in total employment in this year's first quarter. For all of 2024, he had projected 2% growth at Greater Spokane Incorporated's Economic Forecast event. 

Employment growth is accelerating faster in North Idaho than it is in Eastern Washington, but it is expanding regionwide. And arguably the most encouraging characteristic of the addition of jobs is that it appears to be broad based, rather than concentrated in one sector. 

The job growth is occurring at a time when inflation in the prices of goods has moderated, with costs of services still driving prices upward. Interest rate hikes are remaining in place for now, but some relief could come perhaps late this year, although it's more likely to come during 2025. 

While interest rates are higher than they had been in the post-housing bubble economy, they remain close to historical averages. Most importantly, at this stage, they don't appear to be going higher. 

Worries of a recession have ebbed over the past year, as the economy was able to absorb interest rates hikes without the contraction that many feared. For the next six months, at least, a recession appears to be unlikely. 

Of course, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned at a macro level. Another contentious presidential election is imminent, and at some point, the federal government is going to need to overcome its partisan dysfunction to address the national debt. 

On the world stage, as Forsyth points out, there are a number of reasons to be concerned. Russia's prolonged invasion of Ukraine has increased tensions between the aggressor and Europe, and conflicts in the Middle East have become persistently more complex and worrisome. Relations between China and the Philippines have become strained as well. 

But none of that has filtered down to Main Street yet, and unless something out of the ordinary happens, it's unlikely to do so this year. 

We've worked hard, as a business community, to recover from the pandemic-era economic downturn. It's been a struggle to staff up and get costs under control, but by and large, we've done it. Think twice before pulling back in the current environment.