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Don C. Brunell is a business analyst, writer, and retired president of the Association of Washington Business. He now lives in Vancouver, Washington, and can be contacted at theBrunells@msn.com.
In 2025, big investment money is going to nuclear power to offset the loss of reliable electricity from coal and natural gas-fired power plants. Those plants are closing to curb greenhouse gas emissions at a time when demand is skyrocketing.
The Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee cites the rapid expansion of data centers as a driver in increased electricity use. Large data centers, an increase in high-tech manufacturing and growing electrification in homes, buildings, and transportation are straining power-generating and transmission capacity. Increased demand for charging electric vehicles is projected to account for about 4% of total electricity demand in Western states by 2034.
Amazon has become the "biggest investor" in Energy Northwest’s four small modular nuclear reactors at Hanford. It allocated $334 million to fund a facility which would have 320-megawatt output—enough to electrify 320,000 homes. Amazon's investment will give it "first access" to any power produced at the site to run its Pacific Northwest data centers.
The International Energy Agency expects artificial intelligence energy consumption to balloon 10-fold by 2026. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency mining will grow by 30%.
Heading into 2025, Pacific Northwest electricity demand is expected to grow more by one-third in the next decade—triple the prediction from three years ago. That growth is attracting big investments.
If Washingtonians, who already procure over 70% of their electricity from hydro sources, are to be completely devoid of fossil fuel generation by 2045, they must have new nuclear generation and retain today’s hydro capacity.
More specifically, breaching the four lower Snake River dams should be off the table. It would require the equivalent of three large nuclear plants to replace the lost power if they are torn down and their powerhouses are razed.
Washington’s Clean Energy Transformation Act leans heavily on renewable fuels, particularly wind and solar. Nuclear energy was ignored in the act, however, newer nuclear technologies can play a key role in the years ahead.
Without nuclear, it will be impossible to wean ourselves from fossil fuels. Nuclear power doesn’t rely on sunshine or wind. Nor does it require augmentation by large battery systems such as those currently under development.
A big question is safety. The U.S. Navy initiated its nuclear propulsion program in 1948. Since 1975, all submarines and supercarriers have been powered by nuclear reactors.
The new land-based nuclear technology is smaller than utility-scaled nuclear power plants. The advanced small modular nuclear reactor was developed at Oregon State University and spun out to NuScale. Its small nuclear reactor is being developed at Idaho National Laboratory, near Idaho Falls.
To make the reactors safer, Jose Reyes, a nuclear engineer and co-founder of NuScale, told Science Magazine that researchers have simplified the design and made them impervious to meltdown. They will be factory built and moved to the site, which could be where a demolished plant was located.
A small nuclear reactor would take 1% of the space of a conventional reactor and would produce 60 megawatts of power. When stacked together, 12 units would perform as one. Unlike a large nuclear plant, the individual units can be taken offline, refueled, or repaired.
Energy Northwest is scheduled to staff and operate the Idaho facility, and the utility is considering locating others at Hanford. Future designs under consideration would generate 720 megawatts, which is half of the output of the Columbia Generating Station.
While small nuclear reactor technology has a long road ahead, the latest demand projections are accelerating development. New nuclear technology is coming with sizeable investments. That’s good news because without nuclear, prospects for providing sufficient greenhouse gas-free electricity are highly unlikely.
Don C. Brunell is a business analyst, writer, and retired president of the Association of Washington Business. He now lives in Vancouver, Washington, and can be contacted at theBrunells@msn.com.