Spokane-area job growth exceeded expectations this year, and Inland Northwest economists expect further growth in employment in the upcoming year, though maintaining this year’s pace might be challenging. 

Doug Tweedy, Spokane-based regional economist for the Washington state Employment Security Department, says that through the first 10 months of this year, the Spokane-Spokane Valley Metropolitan Statistical Area was on pace to add up to 6,000 jobs for the year, which would be a 3 percent increase in employment compared with last year. 

The Spokane-Spokane Valley MSA includes Stevens and Pend Oreille counties, though the lion’s share of the jobs are in Spokane County. 

The MSA’s average annual unemployment rate for 2015 is projected to come in at 6 percent, just over a percentage point lower than the 7.1 annual rate for 2014. 

For 2016, Tweedy says he expects the jobless rate to drop to between 5 percent and 5.5 percent. 

“As employers fill job vacancies, skills shortages may pop up,” he says. 

The projected annual jobless rate for this year is the lowest it’s been in seven years, but Tweedy contends an even more telling statistic is that initial claims for unemployment are at a 10-year low. 

“That’s a leading indicator,” he says. “That’s kind of a signpost for where we are going.”

Tweedy expects the number of jobs to increase in 2016 at between 2 percent and 3 percent, which would be at or just below this year’s growth clip. 

Grant Forsyth, chief economist for Spokane-based Avista Corp., says he is predicting regional job growth—including both the Spokane-Spokane Valley MSA and Kootenai County—at 2 percent next year, or at the low end of Tweedy’s range. 

Forsyth describes 2015 as an “extraordinary year” for job growth and says, “It’s so strong that it’s difficult to believe we could keep this pace up.”

He says the growth in employment has been broad based, including progress in nearly all private-sector industries, as well as in the public sector. 

In recent years, private-sector jobs increased, but part of that growth was offset by declines in government jobs, especially at the state and local levels. 

“The nice thing for 2015 is that nothing was acting as a drag,” Forsyth says. 

Tweedy says much of the job growth has occurred in industries that pay higher than average, including manufacturing and the professional/scientific/technical category, which includes legal, accounting, and research-and-development jobs, among others. 

Next year, Tweedy says, “As those jobs gain traction, follow-on jobs will increase.” Such jobs include those in retail, hospitality, and related fields. 

While employers are beefing up in some of the higher paying fields, the Spokane market hasn’t seen substantial wage growth, which has been consistent with national trends. 

Going into the new year, Forsyth says, “Given the tightness in the labor market, we should see some acceleration in wage growth.” 

—Linn Parish