Steve Scranton

Foundation remains solid, but expect growth to slow in coming year

Inflation, trade uncertainty, and volatility pose threats, but looser monetary policy, tax stimulus, and stable labor will help

November 6, 2025

Steve Scranton

As we look ahead for the next 12 months, the US economy faces a transition period marked by moderating growth, elevated policy uncertainty, continued stubborn inflation levels, and the delayed effects of earlier policy changes. While the foundation remains solid, many economists and forecasters project growth slowing toward a below-trend pace.

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Expect slower spending, more work on Fed target

A recession is the last stage of an economic cycle, and there’s no evidence the current cycle has been broken

November 8, 2023

Steve Scranton

The economic data shows evidence of an economy in transition. The raging debate is whether the economy is transitioning to a slower growth rate (i.e., a “soft landing”) or whether it is transitioning to a recession (i.e., a “hard landing”).

Recession risk is high by end of 2023

But by planning ahead and being ready, you can manage the downturn and see opportunities

November 17, 2022

Steve Scranton

To use a weather analogy, I believe we are under a 'recession warningâ€ as the Federal Reserve continues its aggressive interest rate increases. I now believe that the risk is high that the economy will be in a recession before the end of 2023.

Inflation significance varies with individuals

Trend probably more self-correcting than spiraling

June 21, 2018

Steve Scranton

The topic of inflation has begun to receive more attention from the media, economists, policy makers, and the Federal Reserve. The reason for this heightened interest is that the official measure of inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's target

Poll results, economic performance are diverging

Positive sentiment doesn't lead to immediate action

June 22, 2017

Steve Scranton

Since the end of the U.S. elections last November, survey measurements of how people feel about the economy and their personal situations have risen dramatically. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased from a reading of 100.8 as of Oct

Federal Reserve action stirs policy error concerns

Timeline for raising rates has become more murky

November 5, 2015

Steve Scranton

Much anticipation and discussion swirled throughout the summer regarding when the Federal Reserve would begin the process to normalize interest rates, with economists and forecasters pretty evenly split between whether or not the Fed would start in Septem

Spokane's economy is on consistent growth track

Jobs continue to increase; wage growth is a concern

June 19, 2014

Steve Scranton

Spokane has seen 2014 start with a more consistent pattern of economic growth than the nation as a whole. Unlike much of the Midwest and East Coast, Spokane didn't suffer through the severe winter weather that hampered economic activity. The picture t