Despite economic uncertainty, downtown Spokane’s 2025 holiday retail forecast looks optimistic.

Holiday sales at River Park Square are expected to grow 3.1% above 2024 sales, says Bryn West, vice president of leasing and operations for Cowles Real Estate, a subsidiary of Cowles Co., which owns River Park Square.

“We actually are expecting yet another increase in holiday sales,” she says. “We have noticed that since coming out of the pandemic, every year has been just a little bit better, and we are not expecting anything different this year.”

On the national level, the National Retail Federation's annual consumer survey shows consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average, 1.3% less than last year’s record of $901.99. That’s the second highest spending amount in the 23 years since the National Retail Federation's annual consumer survey began.

“People want to have a full tree despite all the noise that's going on around them, so I think it's just one of those, ‘We are going to have a Merry Christmas, ... despite all the craziness that's going on around us,’” West says.

West notes the holiday shopping season is starting earlier each year and holiday-specific discounts influence customers to buy more.

“We almost feel a little behind,” says Julia Lara, co-owner of Spokane-based J&K Lara LLC, which operates Whiz Kids, French Toast, and Paper Nerd. “Serious holiday shoppers started back in September, so we're just trying to catch them as much as we can.”

All three of Lara's stores are located in River Park Square, at 808 W. Main, on the third floor.

Black Friday deals from larger brands that begin in early November encourage shoppers to get their holiday shopping done early, West says.

“A lot of folks used to wait until Black Friday and then they would really like dig in and start Christmas shopping,” West says. “I think we're starting to see the trend of that shopping pulling out into earlier-November.”

Lara declines to disclose French Toast's projected annual revenue, although she notes that the store has exceeded last year’s total revenue as of mid-October this year.

However, Lara says she’s noticed lower income households are shopping less.

“Our middle- and upper-income (customers) are going to be spending like crazy,” Lara says. “And I think we'll see the same data that the rest of the country sees, that lower-income households are going to be tightening quite a bit.”

Small businesses rely heavily on holiday shopping and are challenged to compete with bigger online retailers, says Katrina Brown, retail program manager at From Here, a retail program and store operated by Spokane-based nonprofit Terrain Programs.

“It's such an important season for all of these ... small businesses. They'll make a quarter or more of their revenue in just November, December alone,” Brown says. “They really depend on this income.”

From Here works with local artists to sell locally-made clothing and gifts. The storefront is located on the second floor at River Park Square.

Brown declines to disclose From Here's annual revenue, but says year-to-date revenue is down at the store compared to last year. Brown says she expects holiday spending to make up the difference. 

“I think, understandably, it's just because people are tight on money right now and are feeling the impact of the price of everything,” Brown says. “But I think with that, we are definitely expecting a big influx of people who are prioritizing shopping local for the holidays specifically.”

From Here plans to take part in Small Business Saturday on Nov. 29, which functions as the store’s unofficial holiday kickoff. In preparation, local artists will be supplying From Here with holiday products starting this week.

As early as Halloween, Brown has noticed customers of From Here shopping for holiday gifts specifically, she says.

Sixty-eight cents of every dollar spent at a small business in the U.S. stays in the local community, according to city of Spokane Mayor Lisa Brown in a proclamation concerning Small Business Saturday last year. In addition, every dollar spent at a small business creates an additional 48 cents in local business activity.

“I just hope that people can recognize that it's actually going to make a big difference in our community, in Spokane, by keeping the dollars in here rather than shopping at those places like Target and Walmart for candles for instance, when you can come here and you can meet someone who's making them,” Brown says.