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Home » Tepid gains appear likely to remain

Tepid gains appear likely to remain

Most industry sectors foresee little change from this year's pace

December 15, 2011
Kim Crompton

Scattered examples that some industry sectors here are beginning to climb from the depths of this lengthy economic downturn aren't numerous or noteworthy enough to suggest that next year will be markedly stronger than this one has been.

In fact, forecasts offered by observers in most industries differ little from those of a year ago, leaving the impression that 2012 will feel a lot like 2011 and will disappoint those who are hoping anxiously to see broader signs of recovery in the coming year.

In the all-important employment area, the number of jobs is predicted to increase here next year, but at a slower rate than analysts typically would expect to see at a time of economic rebound, and a further drop in employment also still is possible. One lingering concern is that government job reductions will offset expected gains in the private sector.

On a brighter note, residential and commercial real estate sectors could see some recovery as buyers take advantage of discounted prices and low interest rates and continue to whittle down the recession-swollen glut of properties for sale. However, a long-awaited construction rebound has been so slow to emerge that optimism some industry representatives voiced a year ago has withered.

"We're looking for a continued, very flat year, and we're hoping there's not another downturn," says Kate McCaslin, president and CEO of the Associated Builders and Contractors chapter here. Commercial contractors see few new projects coming along to replenish dwindling backlogs, and residential builders anticipate continued difficulty competing against shrunken existing home prices pressured downward by distressed and bank-owned properties.

Meanwhile, technology companies say they will be adapting to fluid markets in an effort to boost sales or at least keep from losing market share in a mostly flat market, and the big health-care sector here continues to face major challenges and uncertainties in the coming year related largely to shrinking revenues.

Spokane-area bankers say they expect their institutions to perform slightly better financially in 2012 than they did this year. They remain cautious, though, due to the sluggish real estate market, area joblessness, and business uncertainty about taxes, regulations, and political and legislation issues in general. One bright note is a reported increase in requests by manufacturing companies for loans for equipment and expanded inventory, and accounts receivable lines.

In one of the brightest sectors, mining companies taking advantage of high metal prices expect another year of improved cash flows and expanded development, while prospects also look mostly positive for the agricultural sector, despite some volatile times ahead. The wood products industry, though, shows little sign yet of emerging from the protracted slump it has endured, although it could see slight improvement.

Retail sector observers here say they expect sales will continue improving slowly through next year, and tourism leaders predict that travel will increase, though local tourism activity isn't expected to match the banner year of 2010.

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