A mixed bag of optimism and concern encapsulates the 2024 outlook for downtown Spokane’s holiday shopping season.

“We are expecting about a 5% increase in spending here locally,” says Bryn West, referring to a year-over-year projection.

West, the vice president of leasing and operations for Cowles Real Estate, which owns River Park Square, says she expects the conclusion of the recent presidential election will have a positive impact on retail spending.

“We saw spending kind of clamp before the election,” West says. “And now, it seems like the stock market is doing pretty well, and so I think people have a sense of confidence going into the holiday season.”

West isn’t alone in her optimism.

The National Retail Federation, a retail trade association, forecasted last month that winter holiday spending is expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5% nationwide compared with 2023.

Additionally, eMarketer, a market research company, is predicting 4.8% growth in holiday retail sales year over year.

West says she’s seen some research that projects between 5% and 8% more spending this year than 2023.

Despite those promising projections, there are some reasons for concern, according to John Waite, a downtown Spokane business owner.

“It’s a short season, and last year was a long season, so that’s a little scary,” says Waite, who owns Auntie’s Bookstore, at 402 W. Main; Uncle’s Games, Puzzles & More, at 404 W. Main; and Merlyn’s comic bookstore at 15 W. Main. “The window of buying is shorter.”

Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 28 this year, five days later than it did in 2023.

To counter the shorter cycle, Waite is pushing for people to get their shopping done a little earlier this year.

Waite also is combatting the shorter shopping cycle with a simple message: shop local.

“Our big thing is to try to get people to shop local. Remember all the little local stores, whether it’s ours or whether it’s anybody else,” Waite says. “Amazon doesn’t need the money.”

Another cause for concern is the current state of the economy.

Everyone’s just a little tight,” Waite explains. “Suppliers are tight. Stores are tight. Customers are a little tight.”

Waite says 2024 hasn’t been a bad year for his retail businesses, but it hasn’t been great either, and he attributes at least part of that to people having to be more careful with their spending.

“While books are very important and we love them, they’re still kind of disposable income,” he says.

Still, Waite remains hopeful about the upcoming weeks.

“If we were to hang with last year and be equal to last year, that would be great,” he says. “I think that’s possible.”

Another downtown business owner is approaching the holiday shopping season with fewer expectations.

Christian Jones owns 4AM LLC, a vintage streetwear and sneaker shop on the second floor of River Park Square.

“I’m really just looking to be a sponge and just continue to learn and figure out … what the people here want,” says Jones, who moved his store to River Park Square in September from his previous space on North Washington Street, near Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena.

Although he’s tempering his expectations, Jones says he knows there will be a lot more foot traffic than there was at his previous location—something that’s already benefiting his business.

West says she’s noticed foot traffic picking up recently, with people starting to shop a little earlier. She’s also noticed a trend within those early-shopper groups. 

“We’re finding more Gen Z and millennials prefer to shop in store versus Gen X or baby boomers,” West says.

At Waite’s stores, there has been a noticeable uptick in early shoppers compared with last year, particularly on weekends.

“I do think people are shopping early right now,” Waite says.

Even though the pandemic created labor issues across many industries during and after the pandemic, West says the retail labor market appears to be bouncing back recently.

“As some of the stimulus money fell off after COVID, people realized they need jobs to make it through,” she says. “It’s been easier to find people.”

Labor hasn’t been an issue for Waite, especially at Auntie’s.

“We’re the kind of store that has like 100 people who have their resumes in, because everyone wants to work here,” Waite says. “Our staffing is actually pretty great.”

In preparation for the busy shopping season, Waite increases his employee count by about 30%, he estimates.

Likely sharing the sentiment of most small business owners, Waite says the holiday shopping season is vital for his stores’ success.

“The whole season is very important,” he says. “You gotta get the holidays right.”