The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank closely tracks overall inflation, especially core inflation. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the inflation measure economists prefer to track as it excludes the volatility of energy and food prices. Excluding spikes in energy and food prices allows economists to disaggregate inflation and measure changes in the price of “core” or basic goods and services.

The economic data shows evidence of an economy in transition. The raging debate is whether the economy is transitioning to a slower growth rate (i.e., a “soft landing”) or whether it is transitioning to a recession (i.e., a “hard landing”). 

The good news as we exit 2023 is the U.S. avoided a widely expected recession this year. The bad news is the chance of a mild recession in 2024 still remains a risk.  

We continue our long-standing partnership with the Journal of Business to bring you the 26^th Annual Economic Forecast with a theme highlighting “What Recession?” from a panel offering local, regional, and national insights.

I think economist Steve Scranton summed it up best this year: “If times are good for you, keep doing what you are doing, but remain alert and prepared.” 
My reading of a collection of articles for this supplement, written by local economists, cemented what most of us are already thinking, that the questions we had going into 2023 remain unanswered for 2024. But here’s the punchline: Fears of a full recession seem to have minimized, meaning a soft landing in 2024 is still very possible.